Long-term Scenario Forecasts
[Update Jan 10th, 2021]
The following presents the trajectory of COVID-19 in the US states based on the various scenarios. Note that the choices of the scenarios do not reflect the true vaccine availability or efficacy. These scenarios are not actual forecasts, but extrapolations given the assumptions described below and infection and death rates learned from the past.
If you are looking for for the "current-trend" forecasts, please see
- this page for the US states and countries around the world, and
- this page for Admin 1 (state-level) and Admin 2 (county-level) forecasts of 20,000 locations around the world.
- Scenario 1: Moderate Vaccine Efficacy - Assumes 12.5 Million course in Jan and 25 million course per month thereafter, and efficacy 70% after two doses, 20% after one dose.
- Scenario 2: High Vaccine Efficacy + Hesitant Population - Assumes 12.5 Million course in Jan and 25 million course per month thereafter, and efficacy 95% after two doses, 50% after one dose. Only 50% of those who are offered, accept the vaccine.
- Scenario 3: No Vaccine!
In all the above scenarios, we assume that the current precautions continue for three weeks after which distancing is reduced to the most lenient setting since May.
Under-reporting Scenarios: A key factor that affects long-term forecasts is the ratio of true cases to the reported cases. We show the scenarios for two values of this ratio: 1.1 and 1.5
